Thursday, January 22, 2009
3G mobile diversity in China
China's Ministry MIIT granted three different 3G cellphone licenses on January 7, 2009:
* a TD-SCDMA license to China Mobile (457 million GSM subscribers)
* a wCDMA license to China Unicom (133 million GSM subscribers)
* a CDMA2000 license to China Telecom (43 million CDMA subscribers acquired in 2008 from China Unicom, 216 million fixnet phone subscribers, 38 million broadband subscribers)
MIIT estimates that the operators will invest about US$ 41 Billion for 3G over the next two years, ie about US$ 20.5 Billion/year - about the same annual rate as Japan's 3G investments every year over the last 8 years since 3G introduction.
Network technology diversity (instead of the Government deciding on a single radio technology standard) means that China's mobile market a few years down the road may have some similarities to Japan's today. Several Japanese companies, including "time machine company" SoftBank are working to bring 3G mobile services and technologies from Japan to China.
In our opinion, competition between different 3G radio network technologies is one of the factors driving Japan's 3G success story.
MIIT decided not to abandon CDMA2000, in order to enhance competition between technologies. Another factor may have been that Japan's CDMA2000 operator KDDI was initially much more successful in bringing 3G to market than competitors DoCoMo and Vodafone (which sold Japan operations to SoftBank).
In Japan it was not market leader DoCoMo or Vodafone, but KDDI with CDMA2000 winning the 3G introduction battle. Better be prepared for surprises in China too, and don't underestimate China Telecom.
US$ 41 billion for 3G in China over 2 years is similar to the figures for Japan.
Japan's mobile operators have invested a around US$ 15 - 20 Billion every year for more than 10 years (for details see our JCOMM report), very similar in size to expected annual 3G investments for all of China.
Japan's 3G introduction took about 8-9 years (from October 2001 until 2009/2010 - Japan's last 2G phone was shipped in December 2007). Therefore we expect 3G introduction to take about 10 years for China - could be faster because China can learn from 3G introduction in other countries.
China opts for network diversity - like US and Japan
The figure below - from our JCOMM report about Japan's telecom sector - shows the 2G -> 3G transition in Japan, where several networks with different technologies compete in the market place. We believe this competition between different technologies is a key factor for the rapid success of 3G in Japan.
China having chosen multiple competing technologies, we may see a similar 3G success story as in Japan, however with much larger subscription numbers.
* a TD-SCDMA license to China Mobile (457 million GSM subscribers)
* a wCDMA license to China Unicom (133 million GSM subscribers)
* a CDMA2000 license to China Telecom (43 million CDMA subscribers acquired in 2008 from China Unicom, 216 million fixnet phone subscribers, 38 million broadband subscribers)
MIIT estimates that the operators will invest about US$ 41 Billion for 3G over the next two years, ie about US$ 20.5 Billion/year - about the same annual rate as Japan's 3G investments every year over the last 8 years since 3G introduction.
Network technology diversity (instead of the Government deciding on a single radio technology standard) means that China's mobile market a few years down the road may have some similarities to Japan's today. Several Japanese companies, including "time machine company" SoftBank are working to bring 3G mobile services and technologies from Japan to China.
In our opinion, competition between different 3G radio network technologies is one of the factors driving Japan's 3G success story.
MIIT decided not to abandon CDMA2000, in order to enhance competition between technologies. Another factor may have been that Japan's CDMA2000 operator KDDI was initially much more successful in bringing 3G to market than competitors DoCoMo and Vodafone (which sold Japan operations to SoftBank).
In Japan it was not market leader DoCoMo or Vodafone, but KDDI with CDMA2000 winning the 3G introduction battle. Better be prepared for surprises in China too, and don't underestimate China Telecom.
US$ 41 billion for 3G in China over 2 years is similar to the figures for Japan.
Japan's mobile operators have invested a around US$ 15 - 20 Billion every year for more than 10 years (for details see our JCOMM report), very similar in size to expected annual 3G investments for all of China.
Japan's 3G introduction took about 8-9 years (from October 2001 until 2009/2010 - Japan's last 2G phone was shipped in December 2007). Therefore we expect 3G introduction to take about 10 years for China - could be faster because China can learn from 3G introduction in other countries.
China opts for network diversity - like US and Japan
The figure below - from our JCOMM report about Japan's telecom sector - shows the 2G -> 3G transition in Japan, where several networks with different technologies compete in the market place. We believe this competition between different technologies is a key factor for the rapid success of 3G in Japan.
China having chosen multiple competing technologies, we may see a similar 3G success story as in Japan, however with much larger subscription numbers.
Labels: 3g, cdma, cdma2000, china, china mobile, china telecom, china unicom, wcdma
Friday, August 22, 2008
Last 2G phone shipped 8 months ago in Japan
Second generation (2G) phones silently bowed out of Japan's market 8 months ago: the last 2G phones in Japan were shipped in December 2007. KDDI/AU switched off their 2G radio network in March this year, and both DoCoMo and SoftBank announced that they will switch off their slow and expensive 2G networks in the very near future (about 2009). Almost all other countries in the world either depend on legacy 2G networks only, or keep legacy 2G going while building out third generation in parallel. (Today's 3G HSDPA phones transmit data up to 250 times faster than 2G phones did on a good day).
The last 2nd generation (2G) phones shipped in Japan in December 2007. Almost all other countries keep legacy 2G networks running - Japan just switches them off. More in our JCOMM report.
The last 2nd generation (2G) phones shipped in Japan in December 2007. Almost all other countries keep legacy 2G networks running - Japan just switches them off. More in our JCOMM report.
Labels: 2g, 3g, docomo, hsdpa, hspda, Japan, KDDI, mobile phone, softbank
Wednesday, August 20, 2008
Will the iPhone trigger a turning point in Japan's mobile phone industry?
Tetsuzo Matsumoto (Senior Executive Vice-President and Board Member of SOFTBANK MOBILE Corporation),
Gerhard Fasol (CEO, Eurotechnology Japan KK)
and
Dennis Normile (Japan Correspondent of SCIENCE Magazine, and FCCJ)
discuss about the future of Japan's mobile phone market.
"Will the iPhone trigger a turning point in Japan's mobile phone industry?"
(Foreign Correspondents' Club of Japan, Tokyo Wednesday, August 13, 2008, 12:00-14:00)
(Photo: Copyright Foreign Correspondents' Club of Japan, used with permission)
Gerhard Fasol (CEO, Eurotechnology Japan KK)
and
Dennis Normile (Japan Correspondent of SCIENCE Magazine, and FCCJ)
discuss about the future of Japan's mobile phone market.
"Will the iPhone trigger a turning point in Japan's mobile phone industry?"
(Foreign Correspondents' Club of Japan, Tokyo Wednesday, August 13, 2008, 12:00-14:00)
(Photo: Copyright Foreign Correspondents' Club of Japan, used with permission)
Labels: 3g, apple, iphone, iphone 3G, Japan, softbank
Wednesday, August 13, 2008
How many iPhones were sold in July in Japan?
How many iPhones did SoftBank sell in Japan during July? Our estimate: between 75,000 - 125,000. Read on about how we arrived at this estimate.
Net growth of mobile subscription numbers in Japan (Japan's mobile market grows by about 5.5 million per year - for more analysis read our JCOMM-Report).
How did we arrive at the estimate of 75,000-125,000 iPhones sold in Japan during July?
When we analyze the Figure above, we can see that SoftBank's subscriber numbers increased by 158,900 during June 2008, and the monthly increase jumped to 215,400 during July 2008. We can also see that for no other month except for March 2006, March 2007, and March 2008 was there such a jump (in Japan March is the month of peak mobile phone sales, because new jobs traditionally start with the beginning of the financial year on April, 1). Since SoftBank did not introduce any other spectacular phones during July 2008, we can safely assume that most of the 56,500 net increase jump from June to July are iPhone sales to new subscribers, or new subscriptions for second phones, or number portability users moving over from DoCoMo or KDDI. However, this number would not count current SoftBank subscribers who are upgrading existing subscriptions from a previous older phone to an iPhone. Since we are not aware that SoftBank announces this number, we need to estimate it. If we assume that there were equal numbers of new subscriptions for iPhones as replacements, we would arrive at an estimate of 100,000 iPhones sold during July 2008 in Japan. If we estimate, that this second assumption has a +/- 50% error margin, then we arrive at an estimate of between 75,000-125,000 iPhones sold in Japan during July 2008.
Our estimate: about 640,000 - 1 Million iPhones may be sold in Japan during 2008:
If we assume that iPhone sales in Japan will continue at the current rate, then we can estimate that between 640,000 - 1 Million iPhones could be sold during the remaining part of 2008 in Japan, which would be about 1.2% - 2% of mobile phones sold during 2008.
Net growth of mobile subscription numbers in Japan (Japan's mobile market grows by about 5.5 million per year - for more analysis read our JCOMM-Report).
How did we arrive at the estimate of 75,000-125,000 iPhones sold in Japan during July?
When we analyze the Figure above, we can see that SoftBank's subscriber numbers increased by 158,900 during June 2008, and the monthly increase jumped to 215,400 during July 2008. We can also see that for no other month except for March 2006, March 2007, and March 2008 was there such a jump (in Japan March is the month of peak mobile phone sales, because new jobs traditionally start with the beginning of the financial year on April, 1). Since SoftBank did not introduce any other spectacular phones during July 2008, we can safely assume that most of the 56,500 net increase jump from June to July are iPhone sales to new subscribers, or new subscriptions for second phones, or number portability users moving over from DoCoMo or KDDI. However, this number would not count current SoftBank subscribers who are upgrading existing subscriptions from a previous older phone to an iPhone. Since we are not aware that SoftBank announces this number, we need to estimate it. If we assume that there were equal numbers of new subscriptions for iPhones as replacements, we would arrive at an estimate of 100,000 iPhones sold during July 2008 in Japan. If we estimate, that this second assumption has a +/- 50% error margin, then we arrive at an estimate of between 75,000-125,000 iPhones sold in Japan during July 2008.
Our estimate: about 640,000 - 1 Million iPhones may be sold in Japan during 2008:
If we assume that iPhone sales in Japan will continue at the current rate, then we can estimate that between 640,000 - 1 Million iPhones could be sold during the remaining part of 2008 in Japan, which would be about 1.2% - 2% of mobile phones sold during 2008.
Monday, March 19, 2007
eMobile - mobile disruption in Japan
On March 31, 2007 eMobile will start high-speed (3.6 Mbps, HSDPA) mobile data services in Tokyo, Osaka and Nagoya, bringing disruption into the mobile data market in Japan.
While Willcom offers a flat data rate of YEN 9000 (US$ 77) per month for unlimited data transmission at 128kbps, eMobile will offer 30 times higher speed at about 1/2 the price:
3.6Mbps for PDAs, laptops and PCs for YEN 4980 (US$ 43, EURO 32) per month flat rate without any data limit (and n.b. no "fair use limit" as many European operators impose in the fine-print). .... and yes- you can probably also do wireless VOIP or Skype if you set this up yourself.
The established mobile operators (DoCoMo, KDDI/AU and SoftBank) do not offer any flat data rate to connecting PCs and laptops.
eMobile offers the EM-ONE terminal:
- data download at 3.6 Mbps (wCDMA-HSDPA)
- wLAN (IEEE 802.11b/g)
- Windows mobile 5.0
- digital mobile TV
- 4.1inch VGA (800 x 480) LCD display by SHARP
- camera (with QR-Code reader etc)
(By the way- did you ever wonder why new entrants love flat rates? it's because telecom billing systems are so expensive and complex. Flat rates are one of many competitive weapons new entrants have over incumbents...)
Slashdot It!
While Willcom offers a flat data rate of YEN 9000 (US$ 77) per month for unlimited data transmission at 128kbps, eMobile will offer 30 times higher speed at about 1/2 the price:
3.6Mbps for PDAs, laptops and PCs for YEN 4980 (US$ 43, EURO 32) per month flat rate without any data limit (and n.b. no "fair use limit" as many European operators impose in the fine-print). .... and yes- you can probably also do wireless VOIP or Skype if you set this up yourself.
The established mobile operators (DoCoMo, KDDI/AU and SoftBank) do not offer any flat data rate to connecting PCs and laptops.
eMobile offers the EM-ONE terminal:
- data download at 3.6 Mbps (wCDMA-HSDPA)
- wLAN (IEEE 802.11b/g)
- Windows mobile 5.0
- digital mobile TV
- 4.1inch VGA (800 x 480) LCD display by SHARP
- camera (with QR-Code reader etc)
(By the way- did you ever wonder why new entrants love flat rates? it's because telecom billing systems are so expensive and complex. Flat rates are one of many competitive weapons new entrants have over incumbents...)
Slashdot It! Labels: 3g, eaccess, emobile, hsdpa, hspda, voip, wimax
Friday, July 23, 2004
Wireless Japan 2004 exhibition (Tokyo, July 21-23, 2004)
Every year the Wireless Japan sets global trends in wireless communications and mobile phones. Mobile phone industry professionals cannot afford to miss this trend setting show. It is here that Japanese carriers and handset makers introduce their latest products and show design studies and concept phones which set industry trends for the next months and years.
Highlights: "Beyond 3G"
Beyond 3G: SANYO 3.5G phone for 2.4Mbps data download (for KDDI/AU):
NEC "tag" wrapping multimedia design concept phone:
Matsushita/Panasonic "Beyond 3G" design concepts:
DoCoMo UbiButton and UbiChip:
DoCoMo i-Mode-FeliCa wallet phones - for electronic cash:
DoCoMo i-Mode-FeliCa wallet phones - as an electronic door key:
Highlights: "Beyond 3G"
Beyond 3G: SANYO 3.5G phone for 2.4Mbps data download (for KDDI/AU):
NEC "tag" wrapping multimedia design concept phone:
Matsushita/Panasonic "Beyond 3G" design concepts:
DoCoMo UbiButton and UbiChip:
DoCoMo i-Mode-FeliCa wallet phones - for electronic cash:
DoCoMo i-Mode-FeliCa wallet phones - as an electronic door key:
Labels: 3g, au, concept phones, docomo, foma, KDDI, softbank, vodafone, wireless japan 2004
Friday, July 18, 2003
Wireless Japan 2003 exhibition (Tokyo, July 16-18, 2003)
Concept Phones
AU/KDDI Design Series Concept Phones "talby" design by Marc Newson, commercial introduction: December 2004
The following image shows the "talby" series introduced in December 2004. The commercially introduced models are almost the same as the concept models shown at Wireless Japan 2003, with a few small modifications (e.g. three navigation buttons were added to the design.)
SANYO presented a series of 3G phones and concept phones. Later (2007/2008), after a failed Sanoy-Nokia joint venture had been dissolved, SANYO sold the mobile phone division to Kyocera and ended mobile phone production.
JM-NET IP cell phone concept model
KDDI terrestrial digital TV concept model and demonstration:
SANYO 3G concept cell phones
DoCoMo 3G and FOMA
DoCoMo FOMA 3G cell phone F2102
DoCoMo FOMA 3G cell phone P2102 by Panasonic
DoCoMo FOMA 3G cell phone N2102 by NEC
DoCoMo/NEC lovely pink cell phone
DoCoMo airview: remote video control via FOMA 3G
Drinks machine with e-cash payment system and DoPa wireless network connection
GEOFREE waterproof cell phone
GEOFREE waterproof cell phone
DoCoMo "Jailor" remote operation of door locks via FOMA 3G
DoCoMo remote video via FOMA 3G
Linking VISA payment solutions to DoCoMo phones
DoCoMo FOMA 3G phones
DoCoMo network camera solution
DoCoMo Wristomo (combined wrist watch and PHS mobile phone)
Robots and mobile phones
Power shovel remote controlled via FOMA 3G cell phone
SONY Aibo robot dog remote controlled via FOMA 3G cell phone
Camera phones
FUJI imaging for mobile computing and mobile camera phones
Printing images taken by camera phones
Vodafone
In 2003 Vodafone participated in the Wireless Japan 2003 exhibition. Later Vodafone's business situation in Japan deteriorated considerably, and Vodafone did not participate in Japanese trade shows any longer, before selling operations to SoftBank in 2006.
AU/KDDI Design Series Concept Phones "talby" design by Marc Newson, commercial introduction: December 2004
The following image shows the "talby" series introduced in December 2004. The commercially introduced models are almost the same as the concept models shown at Wireless Japan 2003, with a few small modifications (e.g. three navigation buttons were added to the design.)
SANYO presented a series of 3G phones and concept phones. Later (2007/2008), after a failed Sanoy-Nokia joint venture had been dissolved, SANYO sold the mobile phone division to Kyocera and ended mobile phone production.
JM-NET IP cell phone concept model
KDDI terrestrial digital TV concept model and demonstration:
SANYO 3G concept cell phones
DoCoMo 3G and FOMA
DoCoMo FOMA 3G cell phone F2102
DoCoMo FOMA 3G cell phone P2102 by Panasonic
DoCoMo FOMA 3G cell phone N2102 by NEC
DoCoMo/NEC lovely pink cell phone
DoCoMo airview: remote video control via FOMA 3G
Drinks machine with e-cash payment system and DoPa wireless network connection
GEOFREE waterproof cell phone
GEOFREE waterproof cell phone
DoCoMo "Jailor" remote operation of door locks via FOMA 3G
DoCoMo remote video via FOMA 3G
Linking VISA payment solutions to DoCoMo phones
DoCoMo FOMA 3G phones
DoCoMo network camera solution
DoCoMo Wristomo (combined wrist watch and PHS mobile phone)
Robots and mobile phones
Power shovel remote controlled via FOMA 3G cell phone
SONY Aibo robot dog remote controlled via FOMA 3G cell phone
Camera phones
FUJI imaging for mobile computing and mobile camera phones
Printing images taken by camera phones
Vodafone
In 2003 Vodafone participated in the Wireless Japan 2003 exhibition. Later Vodafone's business situation in Japan deteriorated considerably, and Vodafone did not participate in Japanese trade shows any longer, before selling operations to SoftBank in 2006.
Labels: 3g, au, concept phones, docomo, infobar, KDDI, vodafone live, wireless japan 2003
