Thursday, December 17, 2009
Post-Galapagos Japan? - globalizing Japan's fantastic technologies...
"Why do Japanese companies make so beautiful mobile phones with fantastic functions, and have almost no global market share?" I asked this question back in 2003 to NTT-DoCoMo's CEO Dr. Tachikawa (see my article "Leadership questions of the week" in Wallstreet Journal of June 12, 2006, page 31), and offered several proposals to Dr. Tachikawa, of which he accepted one.
A related question is: "why can Samsung, LG and Apple beat Japan's initially far more advanced mobile phone makers, and why have Japan's phone makers taken no effective action to build global business in order to avoid extinction?"
Now six years after my initial presentation to DoCoMo's CEO, I have been invited as the only non-Japanese to work on Japan's "Post-Galapagos Committee". For most of this year our small group of industry CEOs, academics, government officials and other leaders have been working on understanding the reasons for Japan's "Galapagos effect" and how to overcome it.
Read about this work here in the New York Times, about my (Japanese language) presentation to the committee on the IT-Media website here (in Japanese), and download my presentation PowerPoints here (pdf-format, Japanese language).
The "Galapagos effect" has not been created by a single factor. Instead a collection of choices by the management teams of Japan's electrical conglomerates have prevented leverage of their domestic success stories into global success stories. These choices can be overcome. In our "Post-Galapagos committee" we have worked all-year on how to overcome these choices.
Unfortunately the "Galapagos effect" is only one symptom of the crisis of Japan's electrical giants: most have shown little or no growth in sales over the last 10 years, while at the same time margins tend to be small or negative. Over the same period, General Electric has increased sales by a factor of about three, while at the same time earning healthy margins.
Overcoming this crisis will create many opportunities. If at least some of the conclusions of our "Post Galapagos Committee" can be realized, then our committee's hard and totally voluntary work during most of this year and many late nights will not be wasted.
For an analysis of Japan's electrical industry sector see our J-Electric report.
A related question is: "why can Samsung, LG and Apple beat Japan's initially far more advanced mobile phone makers, and why have Japan's phone makers taken no effective action to build global business in order to avoid extinction?"
Now six years after my initial presentation to DoCoMo's CEO, I have been invited as the only non-Japanese to work on Japan's "Post-Galapagos Committee". For most of this year our small group of industry CEOs, academics, government officials and other leaders have been working on understanding the reasons for Japan's "Galapagos effect" and how to overcome it.
Read about this work here in the New York Times, about my (Japanese language) presentation to the committee on the IT-Media website here (in Japanese), and download my presentation PowerPoints here (pdf-format, Japanese language).
The "Galapagos effect" has not been created by a single factor. Instead a collection of choices by the management teams of Japan's electrical conglomerates have prevented leverage of their domestic success stories into global success stories. These choices can be overcome. In our "Post-Galapagos committee" we have worked all-year on how to overcome these choices.
Unfortunately the "Galapagos effect" is only one symptom of the crisis of Japan's electrical giants: most have shown little or no growth in sales over the last 10 years, while at the same time margins tend to be small or negative. Over the same period, General Electric has increased sales by a factor of about three, while at the same time earning healthy margins.
Overcoming this crisis will create many opportunities. If at least some of the conclusions of our "Post Galapagos Committee" can be realized, then our committee's hard and totally voluntary work during most of this year and many late nights will not be wasted.
For an analysis of Japan's electrical industry sector see our J-Electric report.
Labels: business in japan, fujitsu, galapagos, hitachi, nec, panasonic
Sunday, March 22, 2009
Investor Club: What crisis? Meet some booming Japanese companies
It's not all doom and gloom here in Japan. Nintendo's sales and operating profits are rising 8.8% year-on-year. KDDI saw its net profits increasing 59% year on year. Yahoo Japan increases dividends by 22%-25% for 2008. Who are today's winners in Japan's IT industry? Gerhard Fasol will show us how and why some great Japanese companies excel in today's crisis.
The talk reviews today's status of Japan's electrical companies, the telecommunications sector and the internet sector, and introduces seven different companies, which show rapid growth of revenues, operating income and net income despite the crisis. These seven companies we introduce turn the crisis into an opportunity.
The PowerPoints of this presentation are available as the April-2009 issue of the (paid) Eurotechnology-Japan newsletter series. Subscribers receive one newsletter each month - the April issue is an augmented and expanded version of the PowerPoints of the presentation above.
To subscribe to the newsletters and to download the presentation click here (April 2009 issue of our Eurotechnology-Japan newsletter, requires subscription)
Mr Fasol is one of the best specialists of Japan's IT industry. After 12 years in Japan working for the most prestigious Japanese institutions and companies (the University of Tokyo, NTT, Hitachi...), he founded the strategy and M&A firm Eurotechnology Japan KK in 1996. Mr Fasol has advised some of the greatest companies, including NTT, SIEMENS, Deutsche Telekom, Cubic, Unaxis and about 100 fund managers on strategy for Japan, as well as the President of Germany. He helped a French pharmaceutical company acquire a factory in Japan.
He comments regularly on CNBC on Japan's tech sector.
Schedule: March 24th, 2009 (Tuesday) from 18:30
The conference will be followed by a light cocktail.
Place: French Chamber of Commerce and Industry in Japan, meeting room
Iida bldg 1F, 5-5 Rokubancho, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 102-0085
Tel.: 03-3288-9624
Access map: www.ccifj.or.jp
Language: English
Fees: 5.000 yens (to pay in cash at the door)
Payment will be required for cancellations or no-show after this deadline.
Announcement on the website of the French Chamber of Commerce
read a report on the talk here in the monthly newsletter of the French Chamber of Commerce in Japan (in French)
Background reading: our J-ELECTRIC report about Japan's electric companies
and our Eurotechnology Japan Blog
The talk reviews today's status of Japan's electrical companies, the telecommunications sector and the internet sector, and introduces seven different companies, which show rapid growth of revenues, operating income and net income despite the crisis. These seven companies we introduce turn the crisis into an opportunity.
The PowerPoints of this presentation are available as the April-2009 issue of the (paid) Eurotechnology-Japan newsletter series. Subscribers receive one newsletter each month - the April issue is an augmented and expanded version of the PowerPoints of the presentation above.
To subscribe to the newsletters and to download the presentation click here (April 2009 issue of our Eurotechnology-Japan newsletter, requires subscription)
Mr Fasol is one of the best specialists of Japan's IT industry. After 12 years in Japan working for the most prestigious Japanese institutions and companies (the University of Tokyo, NTT, Hitachi...), he founded the strategy and M&A firm Eurotechnology Japan KK in 1996. Mr Fasol has advised some of the greatest companies, including NTT, SIEMENS, Deutsche Telekom, Cubic, Unaxis and about 100 fund managers on strategy for Japan, as well as the President of Germany. He helped a French pharmaceutical company acquire a factory in Japan.
He comments regularly on CNBC on Japan's tech sector.
Schedule: March 24th, 2009 (Tuesday) from 18:30
The conference will be followed by a light cocktail.
Place: French Chamber of Commerce and Industry in Japan, meeting room
Iida bldg 1F, 5-5 Rokubancho, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 102-0085
Tel.: 03-3288-9624
Access map: www.ccifj.or.jp
Language: English
Fees: 5.000 yens (to pay in cash at the door)
Payment will be required for cancellations or no-show after this deadline.
Announcement on the website of the French Chamber of Commerce
read a report on the talk here in the monthly newsletter of the French Chamber of Commerce in Japan (in French)
Background reading: our J-ELECTRIC report about Japan's electric companies
and our Eurotechnology Japan Blog
Labels: business in japan, crisis, french chamber of commerce, nintendo
Wednesday, February 25, 2009
72.5% of all digital mobile TV on this planet earth is in Japan
About 50 million mobile phones equipped with digital terrestrial mobile TV ("oneseg") have been delivered up until today - not counting "oneseg" tuners for PCs, car navigation units and stand-alone units. Comparing this number with reports of mobile TV roll-out in other countries around the world, we conclude that 72.5% of todays mobile phones with mobile TV are in Japan.
How much mobile TV do Japanese people watch on their mobile phones?
In the latest version of our mobile-TV report, we explain in detail our methods to determine that averaged over all of Japan's population of 125 million (including those who don't have a mobile-TV yet), the average viewing time is between 0.4 - 2.3 hours of mobile TV / month. WOW!
Mobile TV 2.0 (OneSeg-2)
Not surprisingly, Japan's media giants are now starting to move, and develop programming specially designed for mobile TV: for example "lunchbox" mobile TV broadcast to mobile phones from 12:00noon - 12:40pm weekdays with news, weather, diet information, summaries of TV shows... it's only a question of weeks or months now in Japan for mobile TV to develop into a totally new advertising and m-commerce medium, and some has started already.
Starting the global mobile internet revolution with i-Mode in February 1999, we can see Japan's leadership emerging in the mobile TV arena. Japan's challenge is to leverage this know-how globally, Japan missed this chance with i-Mode and left the field to iPhone and friends!
72.5% of all mobile phones with digital TV globally are in Japan:
In the same way as with mobile internet (i-mode), Japan is again the global forerunner in mobile TV, together with South Korea.
How much mobile TV do Japanese people watch on their mobile phones?
In the latest version of our mobile-TV report, we explain in detail our methods to determine that averaged over all of Japan's population of 125 million (including those who don't have a mobile-TV yet), the average viewing time is between 0.4 - 2.3 hours of mobile TV / month. WOW!
Mobile TV 2.0 (OneSeg-2)
Not surprisingly, Japan's media giants are now starting to move, and develop programming specially designed for mobile TV: for example "lunchbox" mobile TV broadcast to mobile phones from 12:00noon - 12:40pm weekdays with news, weather, diet information, summaries of TV shows... it's only a question of weeks or months now in Japan for mobile TV to develop into a totally new advertising and m-commerce medium, and some has started already.
Starting the global mobile internet revolution with i-Mode in February 1999, we can see Japan's leadership emerging in the mobile TV arena. Japan's challenge is to leverage this know-how globally, Japan missed this chance with i-Mode and left the field to iPhone and friends!
72.5% of all mobile phones with digital TV globally are in Japan:
In the same way as with mobile internet (i-mode), Japan is again the global forerunner in mobile TV, together with South Korea.
Labels: business in japan, Japan, media, mobile TV, one-seg
Monday, February 09, 2009
Wild differences in operating margins for mobile, TV media groups and electricals
We analyze the effect of the crisis on operating margins in three different sectors:
(1) electronics,
(2) mobile communications,
(3) TV media groups.
In sector (1), Nintendo's margins are above 30% and increasing despite the crisis, while traditional electronics companies' margins are evaporating.
(2) for mobile operators DoCoMo, KDDI and SoftBank margins are 10%-20% and increasing despite the crisis! Could mobile phone usage be crisis resistant?
(3) TV media groups had healthy margins in the 10%-20% range back around 2001- however these margins have been slowly melting away, and TV group margins are heading to cross the zero line into the red zone by 2010-2011. Watch out for a TV media crisis. Read more below.
Consumer electronics sector operating margins:
Nintendo bucks the trend: while Japan's electronics firms' margins are dropping into the red, and have never been much higher than 5% during the last 10 years, Nintendo's operating margins are above 30% and rising despite the crisis.
(Find full data, fully labeled graphics and analysis in our report on Japan's electrical companies)
Mobile phone sector margins are 10% - 20% and rising despite the crisis.
Mobile phones seem to be resistant to the current crisis. DoCoMo's, KDDI's and Softbank's margins are healthy and improving despite the crisis.
(Find full data, fully labeled graphics and analysis in our JCOMM Report)
Margins of TV media groups have been melting away since their peak in 2001.
Back in 2001 Japan's TV media groups used to enjoy healthy margins of up to 20%. Over the last 8 years these healthy margins have molten away, and Japan's large TV media groups are likely to all simultaneously go into the red from 2010 onwards, unless dramatic action is taken. Media groups will need to grow profitable new business, e.g. mobile-TV, and other cross-media growth areas.
Could it be that recent anti-takeover measures have made the large TV media groups complacent?
(Find full data, fully labeled graphics and analysis in our J-MEDIA Report)
(1) electronics,
(2) mobile communications,
(3) TV media groups.
In sector (1), Nintendo's margins are above 30% and increasing despite the crisis, while traditional electronics companies' margins are evaporating.
(2) for mobile operators DoCoMo, KDDI and SoftBank margins are 10%-20% and increasing despite the crisis! Could mobile phone usage be crisis resistant?
(3) TV media groups had healthy margins in the 10%-20% range back around 2001- however these margins have been slowly melting away, and TV group margins are heading to cross the zero line into the red zone by 2010-2011. Watch out for a TV media crisis. Read more below.
Consumer electronics sector operating margins:
Nintendo bucks the trend: while Japan's electronics firms' margins are dropping into the red, and have never been much higher than 5% during the last 10 years, Nintendo's operating margins are above 30% and rising despite the crisis.
(Find full data, fully labeled graphics and analysis in our report on Japan's electrical companies)
Mobile phone sector margins are 10% - 20% and rising despite the crisis.
Mobile phones seem to be resistant to the current crisis. DoCoMo's, KDDI's and Softbank's margins are healthy and improving despite the crisis.
(Find full data, fully labeled graphics and analysis in our JCOMM Report)
Margins of TV media groups have been melting away since their peak in 2001.
Back in 2001 Japan's TV media groups used to enjoy healthy margins of up to 20%. Over the last 8 years these healthy margins have molten away, and Japan's large TV media groups are likely to all simultaneously go into the red from 2010 onwards, unless dramatic action is taken. Media groups will need to grow profitable new business, e.g. mobile-TV, and other cross-media growth areas.
Could it be that recent anti-takeover measures have made the large TV media groups complacent?
(Find full data, fully labeled graphics and analysis in our J-MEDIA Report)
Labels: business in japan, docomo, KDDI, media, nintendo, softbank, sony, TV
Sunday, November 16, 2008
Panasonic negotiates to acquire SANYO to form US$ 110 billion group
On November 7, 2008 Panasonic ("Ideas for Life") and Sanyo (slogan: "Think GAIA") announced that they entered negotiations which can potentially lead to an acquisition of Sanyo by Panasonic to form one of the largest electrical groups in the world. Sanyo's market capitalization is currently US$ 3.9 billion and Panasonic's is US$ 38 billion, combined sales are about US$ 110 Billion.
The Niigata Chuetsu earthquake of Oct. 23, 2004 caused an estimated total of US$ 30 Billion in damages, damaged Sanyo's semiconductor factory and contributed to large losses at Sanyo. As a consequence Daiwa Securities SMBC Co, Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation and Goldman Sachs hold preferential shares in Sanyo with voting rights corresponding to 70% of outstanding shares. The current global financial crisis contributes to the potential acquisition, since Daiwa, Sumitomo-Mitsui and especially Goldman Sachs are motivated to sell their preferred shares when contractually possible, and it is also these three financial institutions which will have strong influence on whether this transaction will take place. Goldman Sachs is reported to have said that the price will decide.
Annual revenues of Japan's electrical groups: Panasonic and Sanyo combined (red curve in the figure below) will be one of the largest electrical groups globally. Note that Japan's electrical groups showed strong growth from FY 2003.
Annual operating margins of Japan's electrical groups: Panasonic's high operating margins helped Panasonic to reach a position of financial strength, enabling this acquisition. Expect more acquisitions by Japanese electrical companies.
Electrical differentiation: High margin (> 5%) vs low margin (< 4%) players.
The figure below shows that there is a clear differentiation of Japan's electrical groups: Mitsubishi Electric, Sharp and Panasonic have high margins - above 5%.
The other electrical groups (Fujitsu, Toshiba, Sanyo, Hitachi, Sony and NEC) have chosen a low-margin path (margins below 4%).
There is a clear gap (4% to 5%) separating these two fields. Panasonic's margin will suffer with a Sanyo acquisition - expect Panasonic management to bring Sanyo up to Panasonic margins.
Globalization of Japan's electrical groups: With 36.8% of sales outside Japan, Sanyo is more globalized than Panasonic. NEC, Fujitsu and Mitsubishi Electrical still have much way to go to globalize.
Read more in our report: "Japan's electrical companies"
The Niigata Chuetsu earthquake of Oct. 23, 2004 caused an estimated total of US$ 30 Billion in damages, damaged Sanyo's semiconductor factory and contributed to large losses at Sanyo. As a consequence Daiwa Securities SMBC Co, Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation and Goldman Sachs hold preferential shares in Sanyo with voting rights corresponding to 70% of outstanding shares. The current global financial crisis contributes to the potential acquisition, since Daiwa, Sumitomo-Mitsui and especially Goldman Sachs are motivated to sell their preferred shares when contractually possible, and it is also these three financial institutions which will have strong influence on whether this transaction will take place. Goldman Sachs is reported to have said that the price will decide.
Annual revenues of Japan's electrical groups: Panasonic and Sanyo combined (red curve in the figure below) will be one of the largest electrical groups globally. Note that Japan's electrical groups showed strong growth from FY 2003.
Annual operating margins of Japan's electrical groups: Panasonic's high operating margins helped Panasonic to reach a position of financial strength, enabling this acquisition. Expect more acquisitions by Japanese electrical companies.
Electrical differentiation: High margin (> 5%) vs low margin (< 4%) players.
The figure below shows that there is a clear differentiation of Japan's electrical groups: Mitsubishi Electric, Sharp and Panasonic have high margins - above 5%.
The other electrical groups (Fujitsu, Toshiba, Sanyo, Hitachi, Sony and NEC) have chosen a low-margin path (margins below 4%).
There is a clear gap (4% to 5%) separating these two fields. Panasonic's margin will suffer with a Sanyo acquisition - expect Panasonic management to bring Sanyo up to Panasonic margins.
Globalization of Japan's electrical groups: With 36.8% of sales outside Japan, Sanyo is more globalized than Panasonic. NEC, Fujitsu and Mitsubishi Electrical still have much way to go to globalize.
Read more in our report: "Japan's electrical companies"
Labels: business in japan, electrical companies, panasonic, sanyo
Wednesday, June 04, 2008
A European perspective on M&A in Japan
Presentation at the lunch meeting of the Danish Chamber of Commerce in Japan (DCCJ) on June 4, 2008.
Announcement
Photos of the event
Announcement text:
With the very high EURO and low valuations of many Japanese companies, and with changing attitudes in Japan, now is an excellent time for European companies to start or expand business in Japan.
There are many ways to start or expand business in Japan, and acquiring a Japanese company is one of the paths often selected by European companies to grow in Japan.
Some acquisitions of Japanese companies by European corporations have led to fantastic successes - while others have led to catastrophic failures.
The presentation will discuss the key factors for European companies to succeed in acquiring a Japanese company, and some of the key reasons for failure, based on the speakers 23 years of experience with Japan's high-tech sector.
Announcement
Photos of the event
Announcement text:
With the very high EURO and low valuations of many Japanese companies, and with changing attitudes in Japan, now is an excellent time for European companies to start or expand business in Japan.
There are many ways to start or expand business in Japan, and acquiring a Japanese company is one of the paths often selected by European companies to grow in Japan.
Some acquisitions of Japanese companies by European corporations have led to fantastic successes - while others have led to catastrophic failures.
The presentation will discuss the key factors for European companies to succeed in acquiring a Japanese company, and some of the key reasons for failure, based on the speakers 23 years of experience with Japan's high-tech sector.
Labels: acquisitions, business in japan, danish, danmark, dccj, Japan, mergers
Wednesday, December 19, 2007
iPhone Dials into Japan (CNBC TV interview)
Labels: business in japan, i-phone, iphone, softbank
Thursday, June 12, 2003
Japan's Mobile Communications Industry
Presentation at the German Embassy, Tokyo
(12 June 2003, 18:30, Residence of HE The Ambassador of Germany, Tokyo)
(12 June 2003, 18:30, Residence of HE The Ambassador of Germany, Tokyo)
Labels: business in japan, communications, industry, mobile phone
Friday, September 20, 2002
Briefing about Japan's high-technology business world for Mme Nicole Fontaine
Briefing about Japan's high-technology business sector for Mme Nicole Fontaine, Vice-Minister for Industry of France
Tokyo, Friday, September 20, 2002, at the French Chamber of Commerce and Industry in Japan.
Tokyo, Friday, September 20, 2002, at the French Chamber of Commerce and Industry in Japan.
Labels: business in japan, fontaine, france, french, minister, nicole
