Monday, July 20, 2009
Do mobile app-stores and online games disrupt Nintendo's blue ocean?
Japan introduced the mobile internet with i-Mode in 1999, while i-Phone and friends are now getting the rest of the world hooked onto the mobile internet.
Games used to be played in game parlors, and some of Japan's game giants were originally and still are game parlor machine makers - a round of Dance-Dance-Revolution anyone? Next came consoles, cassettes and handhelds, taking the growth momentum out of game parlors, and establishing a pattern of growth by generations (today we are in the 7th Generation). Nintendo broke the cozy generation pattern where pixels and MHz increased in predictable ways from Generation to Generation without much other fundamental change. Nintendo took games sideways into the blue oceans of motion sensors and to the silver generation, women and other previously non-gaming majorities, while Xbox and SONY kept slugging out the generation game.
We have been analyzing the Tokyo Game Show for many years - at the 2004 Tokyo Game Show, when SONY gave previews of the PSP - actually, I was personally much more interested in DoCoMo's huge exhibition village setting a stage for about 15 mobile phone gaming partners.
Since i-Mode started mobile phone games in 1999, online and mobile phone games combined have essentially outgrown the video game software sector in 2009, and are certain to grow much more in coming years - the iPhone is not slowing mobile phone based gaming down.... Those who only count video game cassettes and consoles, certainly don't see the rapid mobile and online growth - and complain about shrinking markets.
Is Nintendo now being blind-sided by mobile phones and app-stores?
I don't think so: not blind-sided - but strongly affected. Actually, Nintendo's CEO and DoCoMo's CEO (and Vodafone, Apple, Research in Motion, PALM, and NOKIA's CEOs) tell us they want to make their DSi's / mobile phones central to everybody's lives - with built in cameras, payments, app-stores, navigation. Essentially everyone on planet earth has a mobile phone, or will soon have one, or two. Many of todays phones in people's hands can't yet play games nicely - but DoCoMo's phones do - and iPhones do also. Thats why we already see a lot of mobile gaming in Japan. Imagine the day when most mobile phones on planet earth can play games nicely? Will that day come?
Will people upgrade to a DSi? or to a PSP? or to a better mobile phone? Apple and DoCoMo are both proof that people do pay for downloading games from i-Mode or i-Tunes app-stores - and that's exactly the growth we see in the Figure - you don't see that growth if you count only the number of game cassettes and consoles sold. In any case we may not see an 8th generation console - people might upgrade their phones instead - or use Skype on their PSP.
Detailed analysis in our report on Japan's games sector.
Games used to be played in game parlors, and some of Japan's game giants were originally and still are game parlor machine makers - a round of Dance-Dance-Revolution anyone? Next came consoles, cassettes and handhelds, taking the growth momentum out of game parlors, and establishing a pattern of growth by generations (today we are in the 7th Generation). Nintendo broke the cozy generation pattern where pixels and MHz increased in predictable ways from Generation to Generation without much other fundamental change. Nintendo took games sideways into the blue oceans of motion sensors and to the silver generation, women and other previously non-gaming majorities, while Xbox and SONY kept slugging out the generation game.
We have been analyzing the Tokyo Game Show for many years - at the 2004 Tokyo Game Show, when SONY gave previews of the PSP - actually, I was personally much more interested in DoCoMo's huge exhibition village setting a stage for about 15 mobile phone gaming partners.
Since i-Mode started mobile phone games in 1999, online and mobile phone games combined have essentially outgrown the video game software sector in 2009, and are certain to grow much more in coming years - the iPhone is not slowing mobile phone based gaming down.... Those who only count video game cassettes and consoles, certainly don't see the rapid mobile and online growth - and complain about shrinking markets.
Is Nintendo now being blind-sided by mobile phones and app-stores?
I don't think so: not blind-sided - but strongly affected. Actually, Nintendo's CEO and DoCoMo's CEO (and Vodafone, Apple, Research in Motion, PALM, and NOKIA's CEOs) tell us they want to make their DSi's / mobile phones central to everybody's lives - with built in cameras, payments, app-stores, navigation. Essentially everyone on planet earth has a mobile phone, or will soon have one, or two. Many of todays phones in people's hands can't yet play games nicely - but DoCoMo's phones do - and iPhones do also. Thats why we already see a lot of mobile gaming in Japan. Imagine the day when most mobile phones on planet earth can play games nicely? Will that day come?
Will people upgrade to a DSi? or to a PSP? or to a better mobile phone? Apple and DoCoMo are both proof that people do pay for downloading games from i-Mode or i-Tunes app-stores - and that's exactly the growth we see in the Figure - you don't see that growth if you count only the number of game cassettes and consoles sold. In any case we may not see an 8th generation console - people might upgrade their phones instead - or use Skype on their PSP.
Detailed analysis in our report on Japan's games sector.
Labels: docomo, games, imode, iphone, mobile games, nintendo
Monday, May 25, 2009
beeTV - DoCoMo's new mobile TV
On May 1, 2009, DoCoMo in cooperation with media firm Avex started the mobile TV beeTV which brings 8 channels including a MOOLOG Channel (MOOLOG = MOOvie-bLOG)
beeTV is an indicator how Mobile TV may impact Japan's Media Sector.
beeTV is an indicator how Mobile TV may impact Japan's Media Sector.
Labels: 1seg, avex, beetv, docomo, i-mode, imode, mobile TV, moolog, oneseg
Sunday, November 23, 2008
Japan's two worlds: Old Japan vs New Japan
A few days ago the New Context Conference was held here in Tokyo, mainly about social network systems (SNS), top executives including CEO of LinkedIn, Facebook, and some exciting new photo, video conference and e-learning companies discussed market entry to Japan.
Takeshi Natsuno, one of the three key DoCoMo managers who together started i-Mode and arguably started the world's mobile internet revolution launching i-Mode back in February 1999 gave the keynote discussion. Natsuno shared his very interesting observation, that Japan consists of two markets:
...and having managed i-Mode (today: 48 million paying subscribers) for almost 10 years Natsuno-san is certainly one of the best to know. (Natsuno-san's main job today is to make Japan's very cute equivalent of YouTube profitable - read more about this in a future issue of our newsletters).
Actually, you'll find a similar observation about old Japan and new Japan in my presentation entitled "New opportunities versus old mistakes: foreign companies in Japan's high-tech markets" which I gave some years ago at Stanford University to faculty, students, alumni and silicon valley managers.- (You can view and download the slides of the presentation below.)
Natsuno-san talking at the New Context conference in Tokyo about old Japan, new Japan, the future of the mobile internet, and the mobile industry. Natsuno-san is one of the three inventors of i-Mode:
Takeshi Natsuno, one of the three key DoCoMo managers who together started i-Mode and arguably started the world's mobile internet revolution launching i-Mode back in February 1999 gave the keynote discussion. Natsuno shared his very interesting observation, that Japan consists of two markets:
- new Japan = people below 50 years age and
- old Japan = above 50 years age
...and having managed i-Mode (today: 48 million paying subscribers) for almost 10 years Natsuno-san is certainly one of the best to know. (Natsuno-san's main job today is to make Japan's very cute equivalent of YouTube profitable - read more about this in a future issue of our newsletters).
Actually, you'll find a similar observation about old Japan and new Japan in my presentation entitled "New opportunities versus old mistakes: foreign companies in Japan's high-tech markets" which I gave some years ago at Stanford University to faculty, students, alumni and silicon valley managers.- (You can view and download the slides of the presentation below.)
Natsuno-san talking at the New Context conference in Tokyo about old Japan, new Japan, the future of the mobile internet, and the mobile industry. Natsuno-san is one of the three inventors of i-Mode:
Labels: i-mode, imode, Japan, natsuno, sns, takeshi natsuno, youtube
Monday, January 01, 2007
NEW YEAR on i-Mode and EZ-web
Both i-Mode and EZweb top menu pages display Season Greetings and reflect Japan's seasonal mood: autumn sports days in schools, skiing in winter, Halloween and New Year.
Here are this year's New Year greetings for the Year of the boar on i-mode and EZweb which were displayed from January 1, 2007 for a few days during Japan's New Year vacation:
More about Japan's mobile internet:
DoCoMo and i-Mode
KDDI and EZweb
SoftBank and YAHOO-Keitai
Here are this year's New Year greetings for the Year of the boar on i-mode and EZweb which were displayed from January 1, 2007 for a few days during Japan's New Year vacation:
More about Japan's mobile internet:
DoCoMo and i-Mode
KDDI and EZweb
SoftBank and YAHOO-Keitai
Labels: docomo, ezweb, i-mode, imode, KDDI
Thursday, March 21, 2002
i-Mode: business models for mobile communications
Full day tutorial by Gerhard Fasol, organized by Seminario Internacional Prisma, held at the Hotel Metropolitan, Lisboa, March 21, 2002.
Attendance: about 50 executives from Portugal's telecom operators, major consulting firms, and IT professionals attended the full day tutorial.
Download and update presentation as a pdf-file
Attendance: about 50 executives from Portugal's telecom operators, major consulting firms, and IT professionals attended the full day tutorial.
Download and update presentation as a pdf-file
Labels: i-mode, imode, Japan, portugal, wireless business, wireless internet
