Friday, July 31, 2009
Future of Video Game Sector (CNBC Airtime: Thurs. Jul. 30 2009)
Read more about Nintendo and the games sector: http://www.eurotechnology.com/store/jgames/index.shtml
Read more about Japan's electrical industry sector in our J-ELECTRIC report (pdf file)
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technology newsletters from Japan
Labels: games, mobile games, nintendo, online games, sony, xbox
Monday, July 20, 2009
Do mobile app-stores and online games disrupt Nintendo's blue ocean?
Games used to be played in game parlors, and some of Japan's game giants were originally and still are game parlor machine makers - a round of Dance-Dance-Revolution anyone? Next came consoles, cassettes and handhelds, taking the growth momentum out of game parlors, and establishing a pattern of growth by generations (today we are in the 7th Generation). Nintendo broke the cozy generation pattern where pixels and MHz increased in predictable ways from Generation to Generation without much other fundamental change. Nintendo took games sideways into the blue oceans of motion sensors and to the silver generation, women and other previously non-gaming majorities, while Xbox and SONY kept slugging out the generation game.
We have been analyzing the Tokyo Game Show for many years - at the 2004 Tokyo Game Show, when SONY gave previews of the PSP - actually, I was personally much more interested in DoCoMo's huge exhibition village setting a stage for about 15 mobile phone gaming partners.
Since i-Mode started mobile phone games in 1999, online and mobile phone games combined have essentially outgrown the video game software sector in 2009, and are certain to grow much more in coming years - the iPhone is not slowing mobile phone based gaming down.... Those who only count video game cassettes and consoles, certainly don't see the rapid mobile and online growth - and complain about shrinking markets.
Is Nintendo now being blind-sided by mobile phones and app-stores?
I don't think so: not blind-sided - but strongly affected. Actually, Nintendo's CEO and DoCoMo's CEO (and Vodafone, Apple, Research in Motion, PALM, and NOKIA's CEOs) tell us they want to make their DSi's / mobile phones central to everybody's lives - with built in cameras, payments, app-stores, navigation. Essentially everyone on planet earth has a mobile phone, or will soon have one, or two. Many of todays phones in people's hands can't yet play games nicely - but DoCoMo's phones do - and iPhones do also. Thats why we already see a lot of mobile gaming in Japan. Imagine the day when most mobile phones on planet earth can play games nicely? Will that day come?
Will people upgrade to a DSi? or to a PSP? or to a better mobile phone? Apple and DoCoMo are both proof that people do pay for downloading games from i-Mode or i-Tunes app-stores - and that's exactly the growth we see in the Figure - you don't see that growth if you count only the number of game cassettes and consoles sold. In any case we may not see an 8th generation console - people might upgrade their phones instead - or use Skype on their PSP.

Detailed analysis in our report on Japan's games sector.
Labels: docomo, games, imode, iphone, mobile games, nintendo
Monday, July 13, 2009
Japan's games sector overtakes electrical sector
Why does it make sense to compare electrical giants with game companies? In many areas, especially home electronics and personal portable devices these two sectors compete for exactly the same consumer spending budgets and mind share.
Pressure on Japan's electrical giants for much more fundamental restructuring is increasing. More details below and find our calculations and analysis explained in our reports: Report on Japan's electrical industry sector and our Report on Japan's game industries.
Figure compares the added total net income of Japan's top 18 electrical companies (Hitachi, Panasonic, SONY...) with the combined total net income of Japan's top 9 games companies (Nintendo, Bandai Namco..., not including SONY Computer Entertainment, because net income is not available).
The games sector - lead by Nintendo - shows stable net income all through the current crisis years. While pressure on the electrical giants for more fundamental restructuring is increasing.

Combined total net annual income of Japan's games sector. (SONY Computer Entertain- ment is not included, since net income is not available)

Detailed analysis in our report on Japan's games sector.
Labels: fujitsu, hitachi, nintendo, omron, panasonic, rohm, sharp, sony, toshiba
Japan's electrical companies & the crisis
The crisis has thrown Japan's electrical companies back to 2002 in terms of combined annual net incomes. It has taken Japanese electricals 7 years to climb from the 2002 crisis to the 2008 (FY2007) boom. Since Japan's electrical companies have made relatively soft adjustments, but not a full fundamental industry restructuring yet, we think that it is likely that developments will proceed along a similar path as in the past: following such an analysis we think that it will take about 7 years from 2009 (ie. until 2016) for Japan's electrical companies to work their way back up to 2008 net income levels. (Find detailed financial data and analysis in our report on Japan's electrical industries)

Back to FY2003:
Combined annual sales for the financial year ending March 31, 2010, are at a similar level as in FY 2003, ie Japan's electrical industry has been taken back 6 years in terms of revenue growth. Again, since a dramatic and fundamental industry restructuring has not yet taken place, we believe that we can expect it will take about 4 years for Japan's electrical industry to grow again to 2008 (FY2007) size in terms of annual revenues.

The crisis spreads the field...
During the "good" years of FY1997 - FY2007 the differences between top and bottom performing electrical companies became steadily smaller: the field narrowed.
This figure shows that during the current crisis the spread between best and worst performing companies became more than twice as wide. The crisis clearly differentiates winners (Nintendo) from losers in terms of operating margins.

Read more details in our report about Japan's electrical industries
Labels: fujitsu, hitachi, nintendo, panasonic, sony, toshiba
Thursday, April 09, 2009
Nintendo's CEO Satoru Iwata and Games Developer Superstar Shigeru Miyamoto
Iwata emphasized plans to move from one DS per household to one DS per person, by personalizing the DS, and by seeing that DS enriches everyday life. As examples he mentioned applications in hospitals and schools (which provoked a question from the audience what he plans to do about children who's parents cannot afford to purchase a DS for their children), and in museums, where explanations on exhibits are given via the DS.
Nintendo plans a "My DS" experience, by including two cameras in the new DSi, and with online downloads of small non-cartridge games and other applications from a new online store to enrich owners' daily lives.
Asked about Nintendo's plans for the recession, Iwata answered, that key is to keep Nintendo's products at the top of consumers' wish lists.
Read more about this presentation and analysis of Nintendo and Japan's games sector in our J-GAMES report.


Labels: ds, dsi, iwata, miyamoto, nintendo, satoru iwata, shigeru miyamoto, wii
Sunday, March 22, 2009
Investor Club: What crisis? Meet some booming Japanese companies
The talk reviews today's status of Japan's electrical companies, the telecommunications sector and the internet sector, and introduces seven different companies, which show rapid growth of revenues, operating income and net income despite the crisis. These seven companies we introduce turn the crisis into an opportunity.
The PowerPoints of this presentation are available as the April-2009 issue of the (paid) Eurotechnology-Japan newsletter series. Subscribers receive one newsletter each month - the April issue is an augmented and expanded version of the PowerPoints of the presentation above.
To subscribe to the newsletters and to download the presentation click here (April 2009 issue of our Eurotechnology-Japan newsletter, requires subscription)
Mr Fasol is one of the best specialists of Japan's IT industry. After 12 years in Japan working for the most prestigious Japanese institutions and companies (the University of Tokyo, NTT, Hitachi...), he founded the strategy and M&A firm Eurotechnology Japan KK in 1996. Mr Fasol has advised some of the greatest companies, including NTT, SIEMENS, Deutsche Telekom, Cubic, Unaxis and about 100 fund managers on strategy for Japan, as well as the President of Germany. He helped a French pharmaceutical company acquire a factory in Japan.
He comments regularly on CNBC on Japan's tech sector.
Schedule: March 24th, 2009 (Tuesday) from 18:30
The conference will be followed by a light cocktail.
Place: French Chamber of Commerce and Industry in Japan, meeting room
Iida bldg 1F, 5-5 Rokubancho, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 102-0085
Tel.: 03-3288-9624
Access map: www.ccifj.or.jp
Language: English
Fees: 5.000 yens (to pay in cash at the door)
Payment will be required for cancellations or no-show after this deadline.
Announcement on the website of the French Chamber of Commerce
read a report on the talk here in the monthly newsletter of the French Chamber of Commerce in Japan (in French)
Background reading: our J-ELECTRIC report about Japan's electric companies
and our Eurotechnology Japan Blog
Labels: business in japan, crisis, french chamber of commerce, nintendo
Monday, February 09, 2009
Wild differences in operating margins for mobile, TV media groups and electricals
(1) electronics,
(2) mobile communications,
(3) TV media groups.
In sector (1), Nintendo's margins are above 30% and increasing despite the crisis, while traditional electronics companies' margins are evaporating.
(2) for mobile operators DoCoMo, KDDI and SoftBank margins are 10%-20% and increasing despite the crisis! Could mobile phone usage be crisis resistant?
(3) TV media groups had healthy margins in the 10%-20% range back around 2001- however these margins have been slowly melting away, and TV group margins are heading to cross the zero line into the red zone by 2010-2011. Watch out for a TV media crisis. Read more below.
Consumer electronics sector operating margins:
Nintendo bucks the trend: while Japan's electronics firms' margins are dropping into the red, and have never been much higher than 5% during the last 10 years, Nintendo's operating margins are above 30% and rising despite the crisis.

(Find full data, fully labeled graphics and analysis in our report on Japan's electrical companies)
Mobile phone sector margins are 10% - 20% and rising despite the crisis.
Mobile phones seem to be resistant to the current crisis. DoCoMo's, KDDI's and Softbank's margins are healthy and improving despite the crisis.

(Find full data, fully labeled graphics and analysis in our JCOMM Report)
Margins of TV media groups have been melting away since their peak in 2001.
Back in 2001 Japan's TV media groups used to enjoy healthy margins of up to 20%. Over the last 8 years these healthy margins have molten away, and Japan's large TV media groups are likely to all simultaneously go into the red from 2010 onwards, unless dramatic action is taken. Media groups will need to grow profitable new business, e.g. mobile-TV, and other cross-media growth areas.
Could it be that recent anti-takeover measures have made the large TV media groups complacent?

(Find full data, fully labeled graphics and analysis in our J-MEDIA Report)
Labels: business in japan, docomo, KDDI, media, nintendo, softbank, sony, TV
Tuesday, October 28, 2008
The power of focus: Apple & Nintendo vs SONY
- APPLE: Wednesday October 22 APPLE announced spectacular full-year results with a year-on-year net income increase of 38%. The results are even better than they look, because iPhone sales and income are spread forward over 2 years due to accounting rules. (See our comments on CNBC here)
- NINTENDO: on August 29, 2008 Nintendo revised the forecast for full-year net income upward by +26.2% (See our comments on CNBC here)
- SONY: in contrast, on October 23, 2008, SONY said that full-year net income (for the financial year ending March 2009) is expected to be 37.5% lower than previously predicted (see our comments on SONY's 1Q results here on CNBC)
Lets look at today's market caps:
- APPLE market cap = US$ 85.6 Billion (about 4 x SONY)
- NINTENDO market cap = US$ 37.2 Billion (about 2 x SONY)
- SONY market cap = US$ 19.9 Billion
Why this dramatic difference? We believe its focus. Apple and Nintendo are companies with clear focus. Lets look at the details below:
In terms of sales:
- SONY = 3 x APPLE
- SONY = 4 x NINTENDO

In terms of annual operating income:
- APPLE = 3 x SONY
- NINTENDO = 3 x SONY

In terms of operating margin:
- APPLE = 9 x SONY
- NINTENDO = 15 x SONY

Wednesday, October 22, 2008
Today's APPLE 4th quarter results vs NINTENDO
APPLE strongly accelerates lead over NINTENDO in term of sales (see figure below) - even more dramatically, if we take into account that the iPhone in 4th Quarter now accounts for 39% of APPLE's sales. APPLE accounts for iPhone sales in terms of a subscription model over two years because of free software updates for iPhones. If we would use APPLE's non-GAAP figures, which book iPhone sales fully at the point of sale, then APPLE's sales lead over NINTENDO would be even stronger.
In terms of margins we see the opposite trend: NINTENDO's lead over APPLE in terms of higher margins expands (see below).
Watch our interview about APPLE's 4Q results today 11:50am (Tokyo time) on CNBC as a video clip.
Apple accelerated lead over Nintendo in terms of revenues. Apple's lead would be more dramatic if correcting for Apple's subscription model used for iPhone sales according to GAAP rules.

While Apple's lead over Nintendo in terms of sales is growing, Nintendo's lead in terms of operating margins is expanding.

Labels: apple, i-phone, iphone, nintendo
Saturday, September 06, 2008
XBox' Japan entry
Nintendo has reinvented the game industry, created a completely new paradigm. Nintendo does not reduce prices. Xbox is still in the pre-paradigm shift world... prices are not the issue.
More:
- Listen to the live CNBC interview video clip about Xbox' price cut
- and read a summary of the CNBC interview in our JapanStrategy blog
- and in our Jgames report (pdf file) (watch for the new completely revised version coming out soon)
Labels: microsoft, nintendo, playstation, ps3, sony, xbox, xbox360
Tuesday, September 02, 2008
Assessing Japan's Gaming Sector (CNBC TV interview)
More in our J-GAMES report: http://www.eurotechnology.com/store/jgames/index.shtml
Labels: ds, microsoft, nintendo, playstation, psp, sony, wii, x-box, xbox
Sunday, September 26, 2004
Tokyo Game Show 2004 (Sept 24-26, 2004)
This years highlight is the SONY "PlayStation Portable" - PSP - to be introduced towards the end of 2004. SONY prepared a huge arena with an gigantic models of a PSP hanging overhead where visitors to the show could try out advance models of the PSP.
SONY also displayed the new "Gran Turismo 4" game, the release is scheduled for Dec 3, 2004. "Gran Turismo 4" was not the only car racing game at the show, we counted at least three more in this hugely popular category.
The DoCoMo pavillion highlighted 15 of the most important i-Mode game partners. These 15 were selected from over 4000 i-mode content partners. Games are one of the most important sectors on the i-mode menu - many customers are driven by games to buy the next handset upgrade. Therefore DoCoMo has a great interest in mobile games. DoCoMos focus at the game show were games for the 900i FOMA/3G series.
Find out more in the picture series below and in our "Japan game industry" report.
SONY PSP - Playstation Portable:

In a stunning arena around a gigantic hyper-real model of the PSP PlayStation Portable (PSP), visitors try out the PSP. PSP is announced to be released towards the end of 2004.

SONY offered a preview of "Gran Turismo 4" representing the enormously popular segmet of car racing games with realistic landscapes and surroundings.

DoCoMo presented an intense show of 15 key i-mode partners focusing on games. The map immediately below shows the lay-out of DoCoMos exhibition area, together with small pictures of the main display of each of the 15 DoCoMo partners

One of the most important DoCoMo game partners is Square Enix with the best selling Final Fantasy series. Final Fantasy is a "role playing game" where the player joins a group of fighters. This photograph shows the Square Enix presentation in the DoCoMo display. Square Enix also had its own presentation area - complete with models, preview area, shows etc.

"Rumble rose" is the most spectacular representative game of sexy games - Rumble Rose is about women wrestling...

ATLUS shows stunning color and illumination effects.



Labels: docomo, game boy, nintendo, psp, sony, tgs, tokyo game show
