Friday, July 31, 2009
Future of Video Game Sector (CNBC Airtime: Thurs. Jul. 30 2009)
Read more about Nintendo and the games sector: http://www.eurotechnology.com/store/jgames/index.shtml
Read more about Japan's electrical industry sector in our J-ELECTRIC report (pdf file)
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Labels: games, mobile games, nintendo, online games, sony, xbox
Monday, July 13, 2009
Japan's games sector overtakes electrical sector
Japan's games sector is booming - and net annual income of Japan's top 9 game companies combined has now overtaken the combined net income of all Japan's top 19 electrical giants (including Hitachi, Panasonic, SONY, Fujitsu, Toshiba, SHARP... at the top, and ROHM, Omron... further down the ranking list).
Why does it make sense to compare electrical giants with game companies? In many areas, especially home electronics and personal portable devices these two sectors compete for exactly the same consumer spending budgets and mind share.
Pressure on Japan's electrical giants for much more fundamental restructuring is increasing. More details below and find our calculations and analysis explained in our reports: Report on Japan's electrical industry sector and our Report on Japan's game industries.
Figure compares the added total net income of Japan's top 18 electrical companies (Hitachi, Panasonic, SONY...) with the combined total net income of Japan's top 9 games companies (Nintendo, Bandai Namco..., not including SONY Computer Entertainment, because net income is not available).
The games sector - lead by Nintendo - shows stable net income all through the current crisis years. While pressure on the electrical giants for more fundamental restructuring is increasing.
Combined total net annual income of Japan's games sector. (SONY Computer Entertain- ment is not included, since net income is not available)
Detailed analysis in our report on Japan's games sector.
Why does it make sense to compare electrical giants with game companies? In many areas, especially home electronics and personal portable devices these two sectors compete for exactly the same consumer spending budgets and mind share.
Pressure on Japan's electrical giants for much more fundamental restructuring is increasing. More details below and find our calculations and analysis explained in our reports: Report on Japan's electrical industry sector and our Report on Japan's game industries.
Figure compares the added total net income of Japan's top 18 electrical companies (Hitachi, Panasonic, SONY...) with the combined total net income of Japan's top 9 games companies (Nintendo, Bandai Namco..., not including SONY Computer Entertainment, because net income is not available).
The games sector - lead by Nintendo - shows stable net income all through the current crisis years. While pressure on the electrical giants for more fundamental restructuring is increasing.
Combined total net annual income of Japan's games sector. (SONY Computer Entertain- ment is not included, since net income is not available)
Detailed analysis in our report on Japan's games sector.
Labels: fujitsu, hitachi, nintendo, omron, panasonic, rohm, sharp, sony, toshiba
Japan's electrical companies & the crisis
Japan's top 20 electrical companies combined are about as large as The Netherlands economically, and have big impact on the world economy. Our analysis shows how dramatically Japan's electrical companies have been hit by the current crisis (except for Nintendo). We suggest that full recovery to 2008 (FY2007) levels may take until 2016 - about seven years in terms of income, and about 3-4 years in terms of revenues.
The crisis has thrown Japan's electrical companies back to 2002 in terms of combined annual net incomes. It has taken Japanese electricals 7 years to climb from the 2002 crisis to the 2008 (FY2007) boom. Since Japan's electrical companies have made relatively soft adjustments, but not a full fundamental industry restructuring yet, we think that it is likely that developments will proceed along a similar path as in the past: following such an analysis we think that it will take about 7 years from 2009 (ie. until 2016) for Japan's electrical companies to work their way back up to 2008 net income levels. (Find detailed financial data and analysis in our report on Japan's electrical industries)
Back to FY2003:
Combined annual sales for the financial year ending March 31, 2010, are at a similar level as in FY 2003, ie Japan's electrical industry has been taken back 6 years in terms of revenue growth. Again, since a dramatic and fundamental industry restructuring has not yet taken place, we believe that we can expect it will take about 4 years for Japan's electrical industry to grow again to 2008 (FY2007) size in terms of annual revenues.
The crisis spreads the field...
During the "good" years of FY1997 - FY2007 the differences between top and bottom performing electrical companies became steadily smaller: the field narrowed.
This figure shows that during the current crisis the spread between best and worst performing companies became more than twice as wide. The crisis clearly differentiates winners (Nintendo) from losers in terms of operating margins.
Read more details in our report about Japan's electrical industries
The crisis has thrown Japan's electrical companies back to 2002 in terms of combined annual net incomes. It has taken Japanese electricals 7 years to climb from the 2002 crisis to the 2008 (FY2007) boom. Since Japan's electrical companies have made relatively soft adjustments, but not a full fundamental industry restructuring yet, we think that it is likely that developments will proceed along a similar path as in the past: following such an analysis we think that it will take about 7 years from 2009 (ie. until 2016) for Japan's electrical companies to work their way back up to 2008 net income levels. (Find detailed financial data and analysis in our report on Japan's electrical industries)
Back to FY2003:
Combined annual sales for the financial year ending March 31, 2010, are at a similar level as in FY 2003, ie Japan's electrical industry has been taken back 6 years in terms of revenue growth. Again, since a dramatic and fundamental industry restructuring has not yet taken place, we believe that we can expect it will take about 4 years for Japan's electrical industry to grow again to 2008 (FY2007) size in terms of annual revenues.
The crisis spreads the field...
During the "good" years of FY1997 - FY2007 the differences between top and bottom performing electrical companies became steadily smaller: the field narrowed.
This figure shows that during the current crisis the spread between best and worst performing companies became more than twice as wide. The crisis clearly differentiates winners (Nintendo) from losers in terms of operating margins.
Read more details in our report about Japan's electrical industries
Labels: fujitsu, hitachi, nintendo, panasonic, sony, toshiba
Thursday, May 14, 2009
More Drastic Changes Needed at Sony (CNBC TV interview)
Read more about SONY and Japan's electrical industry sector: http://www.eurotechnology.com/store/j_electric/index.shtml
Subscribe to our newsletters: technology newsletters from Japan
Labels: sony
Tuesday, February 10, 2009
Foggy Outlook for Global Tech Sector (CNBC TV interview)
More in our J-ELECTRIC report: http://www.eurotechnology.com/store/j_electric/
Labels: hitachi, panasonic, sharp, sony
Monday, February 09, 2009
Wild differences in operating margins for mobile, TV media groups and electricals
We analyze the effect of the crisis on operating margins in three different sectors:
(1) electronics,
(2) mobile communications,
(3) TV media groups.
In sector (1), Nintendo's margins are above 30% and increasing despite the crisis, while traditional electronics companies' margins are evaporating.
(2) for mobile operators DoCoMo, KDDI and SoftBank margins are 10%-20% and increasing despite the crisis! Could mobile phone usage be crisis resistant?
(3) TV media groups had healthy margins in the 10%-20% range back around 2001- however these margins have been slowly melting away, and TV group margins are heading to cross the zero line into the red zone by 2010-2011. Watch out for a TV media crisis. Read more below.
Consumer electronics sector operating margins:
Nintendo bucks the trend: while Japan's electronics firms' margins are dropping into the red, and have never been much higher than 5% during the last 10 years, Nintendo's operating margins are above 30% and rising despite the crisis.
(Find full data, fully labeled graphics and analysis in our report on Japan's electrical companies)
Mobile phone sector margins are 10% - 20% and rising despite the crisis.
Mobile phones seem to be resistant to the current crisis. DoCoMo's, KDDI's and Softbank's margins are healthy and improving despite the crisis.
(Find full data, fully labeled graphics and analysis in our JCOMM Report)
Margins of TV media groups have been melting away since their peak in 2001.
Back in 2001 Japan's TV media groups used to enjoy healthy margins of up to 20%. Over the last 8 years these healthy margins have molten away, and Japan's large TV media groups are likely to all simultaneously go into the red from 2010 onwards, unless dramatic action is taken. Media groups will need to grow profitable new business, e.g. mobile-TV, and other cross-media growth areas.
Could it be that recent anti-takeover measures have made the large TV media groups complacent?
(Find full data, fully labeled graphics and analysis in our J-MEDIA Report)
(1) electronics,
(2) mobile communications,
(3) TV media groups.
In sector (1), Nintendo's margins are above 30% and increasing despite the crisis, while traditional electronics companies' margins are evaporating.
(2) for mobile operators DoCoMo, KDDI and SoftBank margins are 10%-20% and increasing despite the crisis! Could mobile phone usage be crisis resistant?
(3) TV media groups had healthy margins in the 10%-20% range back around 2001- however these margins have been slowly melting away, and TV group margins are heading to cross the zero line into the red zone by 2010-2011. Watch out for a TV media crisis. Read more below.
Consumer electronics sector operating margins:
Nintendo bucks the trend: while Japan's electronics firms' margins are dropping into the red, and have never been much higher than 5% during the last 10 years, Nintendo's operating margins are above 30% and rising despite the crisis.
(Find full data, fully labeled graphics and analysis in our report on Japan's electrical companies)
Mobile phone sector margins are 10% - 20% and rising despite the crisis.
Mobile phones seem to be resistant to the current crisis. DoCoMo's, KDDI's and Softbank's margins are healthy and improving despite the crisis.
(Find full data, fully labeled graphics and analysis in our JCOMM Report)
Margins of TV media groups have been melting away since their peak in 2001.
Back in 2001 Japan's TV media groups used to enjoy healthy margins of up to 20%. Over the last 8 years these healthy margins have molten away, and Japan's large TV media groups are likely to all simultaneously go into the red from 2010 onwards, unless dramatic action is taken. Media groups will need to grow profitable new business, e.g. mobile-TV, and other cross-media growth areas.
Could it be that recent anti-takeover measures have made the large TV media groups complacent?
(Find full data, fully labeled graphics and analysis in our J-MEDIA Report)
Labels: business in japan, docomo, KDDI, media, nintendo, softbank, sony, TV
Tuesday, October 28, 2008
The power of focus: Apple & Nintendo vs SONY
Lets benchmark three iconic companies:
- APPLE: Wednesday October 22 APPLE announced spectacular full-year results with a year-on-year net income increase of 38%. The results are even better than they look, because iPhone sales and income are spread forward over 2 years due to accounting rules. (See our comments on CNBC here)
- NINTENDO: on August 29, 2008 Nintendo revised the forecast for full-year net income upward by +26.2% (See our comments on CNBC here)
- SONY: in contrast, on October 23, 2008, SONY said that full-year net income (for the financial year ending March 2009) is expected to be 37.5% lower than previously predicted (see our comments on SONY's 1Q results here on CNBC)
Lets look at today's market caps:
- APPLE market cap = US$ 85.6 Billion (about 4 x SONY)
- NINTENDO market cap = US$ 37.2 Billion (about 2 x SONY)
- SONY market cap = US$ 19.9 Billion
Why this dramatic difference? We believe its focus. Apple and Nintendo are companies with clear focus. Lets look at the details below:
In terms of sales:
- SONY = 3 x APPLE
- SONY = 4 x NINTENDO
In terms of annual operating income:
- APPLE = 3 x SONY
- NINTENDO = 3 x SONY
In terms of operating margin:
- APPLE = 9 x SONY
- NINTENDO = 15 x SONY
- APPLE: Wednesday October 22 APPLE announced spectacular full-year results with a year-on-year net income increase of 38%. The results are even better than they look, because iPhone sales and income are spread forward over 2 years due to accounting rules. (See our comments on CNBC here)
- NINTENDO: on August 29, 2008 Nintendo revised the forecast for full-year net income upward by +26.2% (See our comments on CNBC here)
- SONY: in contrast, on October 23, 2008, SONY said that full-year net income (for the financial year ending March 2009) is expected to be 37.5% lower than previously predicted (see our comments on SONY's 1Q results here on CNBC)
Lets look at today's market caps:
- APPLE market cap = US$ 85.6 Billion (about 4 x SONY)
- NINTENDO market cap = US$ 37.2 Billion (about 2 x SONY)
- SONY market cap = US$ 19.9 Billion
Why this dramatic difference? We believe its focus. Apple and Nintendo are companies with clear focus. Lets look at the details below:
In terms of sales:
- SONY = 3 x APPLE
- SONY = 4 x NINTENDO
In terms of annual operating income:
- APPLE = 3 x SONY
- NINTENDO = 3 x SONY
In terms of operating margin:
- APPLE = 9 x SONY
- NINTENDO = 15 x SONY
Wednesday, October 22, 2008
Tech Sector Outlook (CNBC TV interview)
More in our J-ELECTRIC report: http://www.eurotechnology.com/store/j_electric/
Labels: apple, docomo, KDDI, ntt, panasonic, sony
Thursday, October 16, 2008
Nokia & Sony Ericsson Results Likely to Disappoint (CNBC TV interview)
More in our J-ELECTRIC report: http://www.eurotechnology.com/store/j_electric/
Labels: nokia, sony, sony-ericsson, sonyericsson
Saturday, September 06, 2008
XBox' Japan entry
Microsoft announced to reduce prices for Xbox-360 by 30% in Japan. We believe that this price reduction will not be enough to bring the breakthrough for Xbox in Japan.
Nintendo has reinvented the game industry, created a completely new paradigm. Nintendo does not reduce prices. Xbox is still in the pre-paradigm shift world... prices are not the issue.
More:
- Listen to the live CNBC interview video clip about Xbox' price cut
- and read a summary of the CNBC interview in our JapanStrategy blog
- and in our Jgames report (pdf file) (watch for the new completely revised version coming out soon)
Nintendo has reinvented the game industry, created a completely new paradigm. Nintendo does not reduce prices. Xbox is still in the pre-paradigm shift world... prices are not the issue.
More:
- Listen to the live CNBC interview video clip about Xbox' price cut
- and read a summary of the CNBC interview in our JapanStrategy blog
- and in our Jgames report (pdf file) (watch for the new completely revised version coming out soon)
Labels: microsoft, nintendo, playstation, ps3, sony, xbox, xbox360
Tuesday, September 02, 2008
Assessing Japan's Gaming Sector (CNBC TV interview)
More in our J-GAMES report: http://www.eurotechnology.com/store/jgames/index.shtml
Labels: ds, microsoft, nintendo, playstation, psp, sony, wii, x-box, xbox
Thursday, June 26, 2008
Sony Plans LCD TV Expansion
More in our J-ELECTRIC report: http://www.eurotechnology.com/store/j_electric/index.shtml
Labels: sony
Wednesday, May 14, 2008
Sony Needs a Hit Product
More in our J-ELECTRIC report http://www.eurotechnology.com/store/j_electric/index.shtml
Labels: sony
Friday, February 22, 2008
Sony Spotlight (CNBC TV interview)
Read more in our J-ELECTRIC report: http://www.eurotechnology.com/store/j_electric/index.shtml
Labels: sony
Thursday, January 31, 2008
Sony Needs to Change Its Game (CNBC TV interview)
More in our J-ELECTRIC report: http://www.eurotechnology.com/store/j_electric/index.shtml
Labels: sony
Sunday, September 26, 2004
Tokyo Game Show 2004 (Sept 24-26, 2004)
The annual "Tokyo Game Show" sets trends and is a must for game professionals and fans. More than 100 companies exhibit.
This years highlight is the SONY "PlayStation Portable" - PSP - to be introduced towards the end of 2004. SONY prepared a huge arena with an gigantic models of a PSP hanging overhead where visitors to the show could try out advance models of the PSP.
SONY also displayed the new "Gran Turismo 4" game, the release is scheduled for Dec 3, 2004. "Gran Turismo 4" was not the only car racing game at the show, we counted at least three more in this hugely popular category.
The DoCoMo pavillion highlighted 15 of the most important i-Mode game partners. These 15 were selected from over 4000 i-mode content partners. Games are one of the most important sectors on the i-mode menu - many customers are driven by games to buy the next handset upgrade. Therefore DoCoMo has a great interest in mobile games. DoCoMos focus at the game show were games for the 900i FOMA/3G series.
Find out more in the picture series below and in our "Japan game industry" report.
SONY PSP - Playstation Portable:
In a stunning arena around a gigantic hyper-real model of the PSP PlayStation Portable (PSP), visitors try out the PSP. PSP is announced to be released towards the end of 2004.
SONY offered a preview of "Gran Turismo 4" representing the enormously popular segmet of car racing games with realistic landscapes and surroundings.
DoCoMo presented an intense show of 15 key i-mode partners focusing on games. The map immediately below shows the lay-out of DoCoMos exhibition area, together with small pictures of the main display of each of the 15 DoCoMo partners
One of the most important DoCoMo game partners is Square Enix with the best selling Final Fantasy series. Final Fantasy is a "role playing game" where the player joins a group of fighters. This photograph shows the Square Enix presentation in the DoCoMo display. Square Enix also had its own presentation area - complete with models, preview area, shows etc.
"Rumble rose" is the most spectacular representative game of sexy games - Rumble Rose is about women wrestling...
ATLUS shows stunning color and illumination effects.
This years highlight is the SONY "PlayStation Portable" - PSP - to be introduced towards the end of 2004. SONY prepared a huge arena with an gigantic models of a PSP hanging overhead where visitors to the show could try out advance models of the PSP.
SONY also displayed the new "Gran Turismo 4" game, the release is scheduled for Dec 3, 2004. "Gran Turismo 4" was not the only car racing game at the show, we counted at least three more in this hugely popular category.
The DoCoMo pavillion highlighted 15 of the most important i-Mode game partners. These 15 were selected from over 4000 i-mode content partners. Games are one of the most important sectors on the i-mode menu - many customers are driven by games to buy the next handset upgrade. Therefore DoCoMo has a great interest in mobile games. DoCoMos focus at the game show were games for the 900i FOMA/3G series.
Find out more in the picture series below and in our "Japan game industry" report.
SONY PSP - Playstation Portable:
In a stunning arena around a gigantic hyper-real model of the PSP PlayStation Portable (PSP), visitors try out the PSP. PSP is announced to be released towards the end of 2004.
SONY offered a preview of "Gran Turismo 4" representing the enormously popular segmet of car racing games with realistic landscapes and surroundings.
DoCoMo presented an intense show of 15 key i-mode partners focusing on games. The map immediately below shows the lay-out of DoCoMos exhibition area, together with small pictures of the main display of each of the 15 DoCoMo partners
One of the most important DoCoMo game partners is Square Enix with the best selling Final Fantasy series. Final Fantasy is a "role playing game" where the player joins a group of fighters. This photograph shows the Square Enix presentation in the DoCoMo display. Square Enix also had its own presentation area - complete with models, preview area, shows etc.
"Rumble rose" is the most spectacular representative game of sexy games - Rumble Rose is about women wrestling...
ATLUS shows stunning color and illumination effects.
Labels: docomo, game boy, nintendo, psp, sony, tgs, tokyo game show
